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July 23, 2004

Issue #4

Season: Weekly Publication

Offseason: Biweekly Publication

Tabel of Contents:

Quote of the Day

Halftime Wagering Part 2 - Looking at Totals

View from the Nose Bleed Section

Free Pick Section

Quote of the Week:

"I believe in luck. The harder I work the luckier I get." - Sam Shoen

Halftime Wagering Part 2 - Looking at Totals

Halftime Wagering Part 2

Halftime Wagering can be very beneficial to bettors that know what they are doing and have watched the first half with a purpose. The sports books only have a short time to put up a line for the second half and because of the short time frame, the so called smart money has not moved the lines yet. This is a golden opportunity for you to make money if you have done the research before the game has started and have watched the first half closely.

Examples of pre-game research are to see how the teams play in the first half compared to the second half. Look at their stats and points scored for each half and make charts for when they are behind and in front at halftime. Some coaches play close to the vest during the 1st half and then come out and throw every play at the opposition in the second half. Other coaches look to jump on a team in the first half and then try to take the air out of the ball in the second half. Chart these teams accordingly. Chart how teams play on the road and at home, inside the division and outside the division for each of the scenarios above. This is only some of the basic chart examples. If you make these charts and watch the first half of the game with a purpose you can find opportunities for you to make money. You may have to hold off on the pizza and beer until after the second half starts so your head is clear and you are focused on winning some money. We will be offering as a bonus in our football packages, possible 2nd half plays to all our subscribers, this season. How do we know that the second half plays might be there? In our research we look for possible outcomes in the first half and predict the second half. This could be for a side or a total.

Example:

We liked the over in the in the Houston Bowl last year but thought the total was too high at 72. We waited to see how the 1st half played out. We were hoping for a low scoring first half but with both teams moving the ball, just not converting the movement into points. Both teams combined to lose the ball inside the opponents’ 5-yard line 3 times. This presented a golden opportunity to snatch a total for the over in the second half. When the line was posted we jumped on the over and then watched in misbelieve that it actually went down. So we bet it again, because we did our homework and felt the total would be an easy over in the second half. As the game proceeded the overall total of 72 was never approached but the second half total was an easy winner.

So what should you do? Chart teams the first 3 weeks and see how the coaching staff and the team plays in the 1st half and 2nd half. You should have a good feel for what they are doing and what they are capable of doing after a few weeks. When you are ready to bet, have a couple of games picked out and scenarios written down. Watch the game with a purpose. Leave the brews in the fridge and scout the preview of the 1st half. At halftime if you have a chance to cash in on one of the scenarios then do so. Keep charting the teams and expand to home and away, behind or in front for all your tables.

From The Nose Bleed Section:

NFL Reviews

AFC EAST: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets

Buffalo Bills: Can they score points this year? My nephew's pee-wee team scored more points in two games than the Bills did all last year! Ok, maybe that’s a lie but they could not put the pigskin in the endzone. I think this year's success will depend on how much they can score. Their defense is not the strongest in the NFL but it not bad. Can Drew Bledsoe get his team to score more than 14 points a game is the true question?

Miami Dolphins: A.J. Feeley. That’s all that needs to be said. Do they really think A.J. is their answer to their quarterback problem? Well, according to the Dolphins it is. That’s a tough call but all I know is he is no Dan Marino! The signing of troubled WR David Boston could make the Dolphins one of the biggest WR cores in the league. They already have future pro-bowler Chris Chambers and then you add Boston to the mix. They are going to be hard to defend by smaller DB's. The defense isn't getting any younger either... Is this the year the Dolphins won't choke and actually make it to the playoffs? Only A.J. knows that answer!

New England Patriots: How can a Super Bowl winner get even better? Get the one thing they missed last year: a solid running back. So during the offseason, the Pats went out and got Corey Dillion. He's a complainer but until last year you would be to if you spent your career with the Bengals. I don't see him complaining in New England. And why would you? You are playing for the team that again is favored to win the Super Bowl again. Will Dillion be a positive or negative aspect for the Pats? Only time will tell and I'm sure QB Brady will whip him into shape. Will the Pats repeat as champs again????

New York Jets: J-E-T-S....Jets, Jets, Jets! Now with the departure of Vinny to the Cowboys it is QB Chad Pennington's team! And I think this is a good thing for the Jets. Now, Pennington knows it’s his team so his confidence will go up. He has a solid running back in Curtis Martin to hand the ball off to and plenty of solid WR’s to throw the ball to. The question should lie on the defense. If the Jets defense is solid, they are going to contend this year. We know they can score points but can they stop teams from scoring. Watch out for the Jets this year!

Predictions: Patriots, Jets, Dolphins, Bills

Visit our site to read the rest of the AFC Reviews

Free Picks:

No free picks until the preseason starts. We only handicap the NFL and College Football. Stay tuned for our selections. Please be aware that all free picks are considered opinions and they are not in our top ten plays of the week. We promised no ads but we wanted you to be informed about the following before the deadline passes.