If a friend did pass it on to you and you like the e-zine please sign up by visiting http://www.thehooksfootballpicks.com/hooksbook.html.

August 6, 2004

Issue #5

Season: Weekly Publication

Tabel of Contents:

Quote of the Day

Halftime Wagering Part 3 - When to bet and when to stay put.

View from the Nose Bleed Section

Free Pick Section

Quote of the Week:

"I couldn't wait for success, so I went on ahead without it." - Jonathan Winters

Halftime Wagering Part 3 - When to bet and when to stay put.

Halftime Wagering Part 3 When to bet and when to stay put.

Sounds easy but there are a lot of greedy gamblers out there. They seem to think it is a crime to win so they bet more to enhance their winnings. The best time to bet at halftime is to pick a dog in the second half. Why is that? Teams in the lead, especially in the NFL, usually will not try to hammer teams in the second half. Players and coaches in the lead by a large margin start thinking about the next week and/or lose the emotion in the second half. Taking an underdog in the second half for the side is the only way to go if you want to stay in the game longer. It is the safest way to bet during the second half. Here is one specific situation and example.

Taking an underdog with extra points is another winning proposition. Betting the favorite or a team at a pick-em in the second half usually will be a losing proposition. What am I talking about? Read the examples below. Smart Bet: Example: Team A is favored by 1 point to start the game and leads Team B by 4 points at half. If Team A is favored by 1 point again at half, you should bet Team B with the point. Numbers wise if you take Team B, it is like getting 5 points for the game. They are already down 4 and now you are getting 1 more point. If they lose the game by 3 points you win because they covered the 1-point in the second half.

Not So Smart Bet:

Same example as above but you take the favorite in the second half. Many bettors that have picked Team A in the beginning bet them again in the second half. I do not understand the theory except that bettors want to win, win, win. Well if they are laying 1 point and are up 4 why the hell are they laying another point, total of 5 points for the game?? I am guessing that they think if they hedge they will only break even and/or their team is up 4 so what is another point. Greedy bettors usually end up at some cash loan store cashing their future paycheck looking for the big score. Stop, there is no big score, go play the lottery. Investment into football betting is just that, an investment. Playing to hedge your bet and possibly win twice is much more productive than laying all your little marbles in one bag.

To read more examples of smart betting visit our site now.

From The Nose Bleed Section:

NFC East Preview:

NFC East: Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins

Dallas Cowboys: Can you say enough about Bill Parcells? After taking the Cowboys to the playoffs in his first year tells you a lot about how good a coach he is. Not only is he a good coach, he is an excellent motivator and sometimes that’s what these high price players need... a kick in the butt. They added an experienced QB in Testeverde. You have to wonder, is he going to start or just help along these young QB's? Then they traded for WR Johnson so he and Parcells are together again. If anyone can control the cry-baby Johnson is Parcells. Parcells is going to expect a lot out of this team. Can the Cowboys repeat what they did last year? It’s going to be tough

New York Giants: Draft day, the Giants traded for QB Eli Manning and his dad...oh wait, just Eli. But if you think Papa Manning is going to just sit back and watch Eli sit the bench, you have another thing coming. Then they go out and sign QB Warner. And coach Coughlin told Warner, Manning and the Bachelor, Jesse Palmer, they all have a chance at the starting spot. Can you smell it all ready? QB controversy? They haven't even played a game yet and I think the crap has already hit the fan for the Giants. Hey Eli, doesn't San Diego sound good about now?

Philadelphia Eagles: 3 in a row. NFC East titles and conference title game losses...both are 3 in a row. One looks really good, and one just sucks! This year, I think it’s all or nothing for the Eagles. I think they want a Super Bowl and that’s it. If they win the NFC title game and lose the Super Bowl, the season will be a waste to them. So they decide to go out and get WR Owens and DE Kearse to help them go to the Super Bowl. Good additions but they also lost CB's Taylor and Vincent. The Eagles are the team to beat in the NFC East and in the NFC, no doubt about it. The question is, can they get that title game goat off their backs this year?

Washington Redskins: Three words: Bailey for Portis. That’s all that needs to be said for the Redskins. Pro Bowl CB for Pro Bowl RB. Hard to say if it was good or not. We will have to wait and see. To me, I think RB Portis will change this team to a winner. You can't beat a 1,500 yard back. They went out and signed CB Springs to replace Bailey. A step down but Springs can still play this game. They also got QB Brunell, who is a little old and beat up but like Springs, can still play this game. I think a lot of people expect a lot out of Joe Gibbs and his Redskins and I'm one of them. Maybe not a NFC East title but possibly a wild card berth.

Predictions: Eagles, Redskins, Cowboys, Giants

Free Picks:

Here it is, the first free pick of the year. Are you ready for the 1,000 star play of the season? If your send us fifty dolars right now then you can have access to this High Star Play. Just kidding, I love hearing that crap just so I can get a good laugh.

Our play is to take DENVER +2 points against Washington in the 1st game of the preseason. Look for Gibbs to keep his new RB out and look for the Broncos to continue their winning ways in the first week of preseason. We see Washington trying to run the ball with little success against the Broncos and Denver doing enough to get a straight up WIN. Please be aware that all free picks are considered opinions and they are not in our top ten plays of the week.

We promised no ads but we wanted you to be informed about the following before the deadline passes. Which it is getting close to that time.