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Early Edition -
Free Pick On Thursday
October 1, 2004

Issue #13

Weekly Publication

Table of Contents:

Quote of the Day

Halftime Tendencies

View from the Nose Bleed Section

Free Pick Section

Quote of the Week:

"I believe in luck. The harder I work the luckier I get." - Sam Shoen

Half time Tendencies

We have been charting 1st half and second half performances of teams and have noticed that now might be the time to start placing that 1st half or second half bet on certain teams.

College:
Look for a good line on these teams for 1st half bets.
Look to bet against Texas Tech and Maryland in the 1st half.
Look to bet on Minnesota, Virginia, and Purdue in the 1st half.
Look to bet on Texas Tech and USC in the 2nd half and possibly the over for the 2nd half.

NFL:
Look to bet on the OVER in the Jets games in the second half.

This week we will be watching the Colts/Jags game very closely. 3 things could happen and we are hoping that right situation occurs so we can bet the over in the second half. Scene one has the Colts coming out and throwing the ball and the score is 17-14 at half or 7-7 at half. With this situation we would not bet the 2nd half over. 2nd situation has the Colts and Jags running and passing the ball with a good mix but no one moving the ball and the score is 9-7 at half. Again we would stay off the game. The 3rd situation has the Colts playing conservative and the score at half relatively low and hoping the jags are up by 3-10 points. We would be ready to bet the over with a number under 20.5. The Colts would junk the conservative approach and then proceed to come out and throw the ball. They probably would even go no huddle to quicken the game pace. Important detail, we do not want them behind by 14 or more at half. The Jags would then be ready for the pass and the situation would not be right for us to bet the OVER in the second half.

From The Nose Bleed Section:

The Seahawks look damn good. Thought we had them with 10 points with the undefeated (against the ATS) 49ners but we were not even close. The D has arrived in Seattle. Of course we remarked on the Purdue defense last week and they went out and gave up 30 to Illinois.

We are 3rd at the Ultimate Handicapping Challenge contest for the NFL best bets section and 10th at the National Sports Contest for all NFL picks. We have struggled in college but it is a long season and we are just breaking the tip of the iceberg. We have also struggled at the Hilton Contest but again, it is not a sprint and we need to get back into the race now.

We figure 65% at the Hilton Contest will put us near the top with a good chance to win. I know, 65% does not sound that good, right? Wrong! The Hilton gives away $10,000 to any handicapper that goes 67% or better for the year. They just don’t give away the money. If you can hit 60% you are putting money in your pocket.

Example:
Our Season Package members are 21-14 (60%) for the season. If these members would have bet $110, which includes the vig on each guaranteed pick, they would have won $460 so far ($2,100 winnings – 1,540 losses - $100 package). If we would have reached our goal of 70% the member would be 24-11 (69%) they would have won $890 so far ($2,100 – $1,210 - $100 package)

So 60% and up you will end up with a rather large bankroll, as long as you know what you are doing when you place your bets.

Free Picks:

Just The Facts:

We are releasing our first 5 Hook Selection for the NFL. No Extra cost because we give out our best picks with our football package.

We are ranked #3 at the Ultimate Handicappers Challenge Contest for NFL Best Picks. (5-1) (83% Winners)

We are ranked #10 at the National Sports Monitor for NFL Picks. (10-5) (67% Winners)

We are ranked #21 at the National Sports Monitor for NFL and College Picks Combined. (21-14) (60% Winners)

We are struggling at the Hilton Super NFL Contest with a 7-8 record so far.

Our free picks went 2-5-1 last week lowering our season record to 14-11-1.

FREE COLLEGE PICKS

West Virginia @ Virginia Tech –2.5

The Hokies will look to spoil West Virginias run at perfection. They are 11-5 ATS against this team but 0-2 ATS the past two years. Looking for revenge from the past two years and redemption for the missed field goal from last week. The Hokies will prevail. West Virginia has a lot of pressure on them to run the table if they want to have a chance to play in the big game at the end of the season. Internal pressure and the Hokies defense will be their undoing.

California @ Oregon State +7

Don’t look to far ahead Bears, USC is next week and you will be playing them with one loss in the saddle. The Beavers will rise to the occasion and Anderson will go nuts at home to upset the Bears. Anderson is a different QB at home and the home cookin will help the defense slow down the Bears.

Pittsburgh @ Connecticut –7.5

Pittsburgh is 3-9 ATS in the last 12 Big East openers. Pittsburgh is just not where it was last year and Connecticut is ready to make the step up to a minor bowl team. Their QB is legit and being at home on a Thursday night prime time game will help them cover the points against the Panthers.

Auburn @ Tennessee –2

The favorite is 4-2 ATS in the last 6 games of this series and Auburn is 1-6-1 ATS the last 8 visits to Knoxville. Tennessee has one of the best offensive lines in the country and their kicking game is also one of the best. Tight defensive game that will be decided by the better offensive line and kicking game.

NFL FREE PICKS

New York Jets @ Miami Over 36.5

The Dolphins can’t score but the Jets can. Could this be the week the Dolphins score points? They will if they want to win. The Jets are scoring points like mad and could possibly cover the over by themselves. The Dolphins will score some points this week to help the Jets make the cover. Look for this game to go over but don’t look for a 35-28 game…remember the Dolphins are playing!

New York Giants @ Green Bay –7

Green Bay is 1-2 and the Giants are 2-1. Who would have thought this would be the case coming into this game. Green Bay looked tough last week falling short to the more impressive Colts 45-31. The Giants beat the hapless Browns 27-10. The Packers can’t lose another game this early in the season. They are back home this week and the fans want a victory, especially after getting thumped at home 2 weeks ago by the Bears. The fans want blood this week and unfortunately for the Giants it’s their blood they want. Look for the Packers offense to stay hot and put away the Giants early and keep them at bay.