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September 10, 2004

Issue #10

Weekly Publication

Table of Contents:

Quote of the Day

Do Your Research

View from the Nose Bleed Section

Free Pick Section

Quote of the Week:

"The smarter you play, the luckier you'll be."

-Mark Pilarski

Do Your Research

The first full week of football, both NFL and College, is upon us and we need to ask you one important question before you start throwing your money away. Have you done your research for the year and do you have the time each week to stay on top?

This will not be a long ad to buy our picks, but it will be a reminder to have all your ducks lined up so you, not us, are ready for the season. On our site we have several articles that cover most of the checklist below. Go through the checklist to help you understand what being ready for the season means.

Checklist for football betting: This is just a short list of what you will need to do to help you win money this football season. If you do not understand look through our site and research our articles to help you. That is why we wrote them. 1. Research every team and map out possible games to win money on for the entire year. 2. Cross off games to stay away from this season. 3. Make charts for halftime betting situations. 4. Understand your bankroll and money management. 5. Set aside money for the entire year and do not go over your predetermined amount to spend. 6. Understand that this season is a long season and you need to win over the long haul. 7. Know your betting options and understand the odds. 8. Do not chase your money. 9. Understand when you should hedge your bets. 10. Research each team and each game every week. 11. Is there a motivational advantage for one team? 12. Look at trends as part of the equation. 13. Stay up on the injury list.

Checklist for football handicapping season: 1. How much does it really cost? 2. Do you get all the top picks with your subscription or is it a tease to get more money from you? 3. What is their guarantee? 4. Does the cost of the service justify your bankroll? 5. Are you doubling your bet just to cover the cost of the service? 6. Money back if they lose is great, but hey you just lost YOUR money at the sportsbook, did you lose too much because you had to bet double or triple your amount to pay for the pick? 7. Are they monitored by an outside source? 8. Do they pay money to be monitored? 9. Are the monitors respected and trusted? 10. Are they in the Las Vegas Hilton NFL Super Contest? 11. If they are not, why the hell are you giving them money when they are not putting up a large amount of money ($1,500) to compete against other Handicapping services?

This list is just the tip of the iceberg. Please do your research before you start betting this season. Research all the information yourself or research the services you are thinking about using. There is information on betting throughout the web, use it to your advantage. After all it is your money.

From The Nose Bleed Section:

We do not want to disturb the football gods by bragging so we will just say that we are ranked very high at the National Sports Monitor and the Ultimate Handicapping Challenge sites. You can always go there and see our guaranteed picks after the games have started.

First Guaranteed NFL Pick was a Winner with Patriots and Colts Over 44 last night

We are 3-0 at www.freepremiumpicks.com.

We feel sorry for the Alexis Sernia and Brian Huffman, kickers for Oregon State and Northwestern. We know we are here to promote winning money, we just hope that these young men can deal with the mistakes from last week and not do anything stupid. You have to remember that they are only young men and the pressure that is on them right now can not be understood unless you were in their shoes. Keep your heads up guys, old saying but still very true, it is only a game. We wish them the best on and off the field.

Hey Coach Riley and Coach Walker, have a clue, Obviously your kickers were shell shocked, WHY THE HELL do you still send them out there? The fault has to be shouldered by them to some extent. Keep the offense out there or maybe you should have more than one kicker?

Free Picks: Last Week (4-1)

COLLEGE
Texas Tech @ New Mexico

Pick: New Mexico +3.5

New Mexico needs a win or risk starting the season 0-3 with a road trip to Oregon State next week. They will finally find a way to win a game against a quality team. This should be a fun game to watch and if McKamey tries to force the ball New Mexico will fall short. Look for Texas Tech to throw 70 times and be picked off 5 times to turn this game over to New Mexico.

Oregon State @ Boise State

Pick: Boise State –7.5

They looked as good as they did last year. This team has a chance to run the table and they get the Beavers coming in stunned that they blew the game to LSU. We almost picked this game as a top 5 selection. Just not sure if Boise State can be as good as last year. They should get the win and if they get up early, Anderson will be throwing interceptions left and right and this game will get ugly. Or it could be a 45-42 game.

Tulsa @ Oklahoma State

Pick: Oklahoma State -21

Oklahoma State is 5-1 ATS as a home favorite the past two years and the home team in this series is 12-2 ATS the last 14 meetings. Morency might hit 300 yards against this weak defense and to tell you the truth, Tulsa might have been done since their collapse last year in the Humanitarian Bowl. Cowboys Big.

Colorado @ Washington State –2.5

Pick: Washington State –2.5

Both these teams squeaked out victories last week. In both cases, they both could have easily lost. Washington State covered their spread against New Mexico as Colorado didn’t cover against rival Colorado State. The Buffs travel to Washington St. this week. The Buffs struggled against Pac 10 teams going 1-4 ATS in the last few years. On the other hand, Washington State loves playing in September going 9-2 ATS including their victory last Friday night. Look for both trends to continue as Washington State pulls out a victory against the Buffs and starting tFree Picks: Last Week (4-1)

COLLEGE
Texas Tech @ New Mexico

Pick: New Mexico +3.5

New Mexico needs a win or risk starting the season 0-3 with a road trip to Oregon State next week. They will finally find a way to win a game against a quality team. This should be a fun game to watch and if McKamey tries to force the ball New Mexico will fall short. Look for Texas Tech to throw 70 times and be picked off 5 times to turn this game over to New Mexico.

Oregon State @ Boise State

Pick: Boise State –7.5

They looked as good as they did last year. This team has a chance to run the table and they get the Beavers coming in stunned that they blew the game to LSU. We almost picked this game as a top 5 selection. Just not sure if Boise State can be as good as last year. They should get the win and if they get up early, Anderson will be throwing interceptions left and right and this game will get ugly. Or it could be a 45-42 game.

Tulsa @ Oklahoma State

Pick: Oklahoma State -21

Oklahoma State is 5-1 ATS as a home favorite the past two years and the home team in this series is 12-2 ATS the last 14 meetings. Morency might hit 300 yards against this weak defense and to tell you the truth, Tulsa might have been done since their collapse last year in the Humanitarian Bowl. Cowboys Big.

Colorado @ Washington State –2.5

Pick: Washington State –2.5

Both these teams squeaked out victories last week. In both cases, they both could have easily lost. Washington State covered their spread against New Mexico as Colorado didn’t cover against rival Colorado State. The Buffs travel to Washington St. this week. The Buffs struggled against Pac 10 teams going 1-4 ATS in the last few years. On the other hand, Washington State loves playing in September going 9-2 ATS including their victory last Friday night. Look for both trends to continue as Washington State pulls out a victory against the Buffs and starting the year 2-0!

Indiana @ Oregon –20

Pick: Oregon –20

No one wants to travel to Oregon to play at Autzen Stadium. This is one of the loudest stadiums in college football. It doesn’t matter if you are an in state rival Oregon State or Michigan or even the team they are playing this week in Indiana. Indiana beat Central Michigan last week and this is Oregon’s first game. If this was an away game for the Ducks, some jitters might be in order. But they are playing at home where the fans are loud and there is no time for jitters. Indiana has their hands full coming to Autzen Stadium and trying to take out the Ducks. Look for the Ducks to start off strong this year after a struggle last year. They want to challenge for the Pac 10 title this year and it starts off with a whooping of Indiana!

NFL

Arizona @ St. Louis

Pick: Over 45

Love this game to go over. The Cardinals will be playing catch up and the trends show that when they are on the road, take the over. Key trends have them playing over 7 out of 9 games when they get double-digit points. The Rams have played OVER in 10 out of their last 14 games against their divisional foes at home. If the offenses of either one of these teams played better in the preseason this might have made our top 5 list.

Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers -4

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -4

The Raiders had a horrible year last year going 4-12 after their Super Bowl appearance the year before. They did have quite a few injuries with Gannon going down in Week 4 and just nagging injuries to just about everyone else throughout the year. Pittsburgh didn't have much of a better season going 6-10. Both teams are out to prove something this year; they are still playoff contenders! There is one difference between these two teams though: Pittsburgh can still play defense. That's not good for the Raiders. The Steelers have always been tough with the running defense and that's even worshe year 2-0!

Indiana @ Oregon –20

Pick: Oregon –20

No one wants to travel to Oregon to play at Autzen Stadium. This is one of the loudest stadiums in college football. It doesn’t matter if you are an in state rival Oregon State or Michigan or even the team they are playing this week in Indiana. Indiana beat Central Michigan last week and this is Oregon’s first game. If this was an away game for the Ducks, some jitters might be in order. But they are playing at home where the fans are loud and there is no time for jitters. Indiana has their hands full coming to Autzen Stadium and trying to take out the Ducks. Look for the Ducks to start off strong this year after a struggle last year. They want to challenge for the Pac 10 title this year and it starts off with a whooping of Indiana!

NFL

Arizona @ St. Louis

Pick: Over 45

Love this game to go over. The Cardinals will be playing catch up and the trends show that when they are on the road, take the over. Key trends have them playing over 7 out of 9 games when they get double-digit points. The Rams have played OVER in 10 out of their last 14 games against their divisional foes at home. If the offenses of either one of these teams played better in the preseason this might have made our top 5 list.

Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers -4

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -4

The Raiders had a horrible year last year going 4-12 after their Super Bowl appearance the year before. They did have quite a few injuries with Gannon going down in Week 4 and just nagging injuries to just about everyone else throughout the year. Pittsburgh didn't have much of a better season going 6-10. Both teams are out to prove something this year; they are still playoff contenders! There is one difference between these two teams though: Pittsburgh can still play defense. That's not good for the Raiders. The Steelers have always been tough with the running defense and that's even worse for the Raiders. When the Raiders struggle running the ball, they cannot win period. Since 92’ they are a dismal 14% ATS when they run for 75 yards or less. They are trying to find themselves a running back and this isn't a good sign for the Raiders against a good running defense team. Look for the Steelers to shut down the Raider's run game and take the game!e for the Raiders. When the Raiders struggle running the ball, they cannot win period. Since 92’ they are a dismal 14% ATS when they run for 75 yards or less. They are trying to find themselves a running back and this isn't a good sign for the Raiders against a good running defense team. Look for the Steelers to shut down the Raider's run game and take the game!